
1)China started their family planning policy in 1970, India in 1952 In 2001 our birth rate was nearly 3 times more than China. 27 births per 1000 as against 8.8 for China! India is adding 18 million people per year, against 9 million per year in China. Total addition to population is a function of total births minus total deaths.
2)How will we provide additional 10 million jobs per year?
The Public Sector and State/Central Government, which is already overstaffed, has a total of 18.7 million employees, therefore offers very little scope for new employment. We have to look outside the government for new employment.The unorganized sector and the SME’s (SSI is not SME) offer the maximum scope for employment, like in all other countries of the world, including China. SME’s account for nearly 75% of employment and 80% of trainees!
3)The Government can only facilitate jobs, they cannot provide jobs for the 300 million partly or fully unemployed in India!At 10 million jobs per year it will take us 30 years to remove unemployment, at 5 million jobs for year it will take us 60 years!
The present Indian ‘mind set’ will require rethinking and reorganization of the existing perceptions about Public Sector enterprises, and the actual role they are supposed to play! Only efficient organizations can deliver results and growth. Only better governance
and efficient administration can deliver results!
4)India’s per capita earning is US$440 per year against US$990 per year in China
As per the World Bank, the poverty line definition is US$1 per person per day or US$365/person/year, for underdeveloped countries like India, China etc. As per the official data from both governments, China has 3% population below the poverty line, compared to India’s 26 to 29%! Only better governance will help.
5)China attracts 87 million tourists per year (this is expected to reach 90 million in 2002) against 2.5 million per year to India.The international Tourism Industry is [7 times the size of I.T. or software] about, US$3700 billion per year. India, in spite of its old history
and 21 cultures and languages, seems to have ‘missed the bus’, in Tourism. Tourism is a very big employment generator. It is estimated that every one tourist generates 2 to 4 jobs. Tourism promotes International trade and understanding.
6)In Foreign Direct investment, FDI, China + Hong Kong received US$106 billion last year [US$70billion from NRC's] vs US$3.6 billion [US$0.2b from NRI's] for India! Only better Governance can attract FDI and Tourists. In exports, China is nearly +700% of India
Taking the exports of Hong Kong + Macau into account, China’s exports would be +1000% of India! China’s GDP is 50% in manufacturing or $ 650 billion per year. India’s GDP is 25% in manufacturing or $110 billion per year. China’s manufacturing base is
nearly 6 times of India’s.
7)In agriculture our yields per acre, are well below the international norms
India could be a giant exporter of food, only if we could put our ‘house in order’ to near world class standards! China with lesser cultivable land, produces double the food grains, at 415 million tons per year compared with India’s 208 million tons per year. God has been very kind to India with a lot of sunshine, rain, rivers, lakes, coastline and good hard working citizens.
8)The governance of hamlets, villages, cities, districts, Government and Semi-Government agencies, as facilitators, have not done enough to show the results that India is able or capable of achieving. India would definitely rate as the No.1 country in the world, for Potential vs Performance!
9)Indians score high marks on performance, outside India! This is because the Governance is better outside. In countries where the Governance & Administration is poor, the performance of its citizens is also low!
10)In Education, 99.1% of Chinese children attend school for 9 years, this ensures a high level of literacy. In India, literacy is 50 to 60% While IIT’s, IIM’s are important, the country’s real growth will come because of primary and secondary education and vocational and educational training in all districts of the country. India can rise and shine in exports, agriculture, literacy and other areas with better governance.
11)Understanding the Real and Virtual India!
There are two India’s, one where we live and the other is the Virtual India, with an estimated GDP of US $ +320 billion per year,where about 20 to 25 million NRI’s and PIO’s live. Their hearts are in India and they are emotionally tied to India. If we can attract them and woo them, they could be a good source of funding projects for India’s growth plans. The Chinese have learnt the art of wooing and managing their NRC’s who number about 45 to 50 million. Last year the NRC’s invested about US$ 70 billion into China + Hong Kong + Macau. India, inspite of its best efforts, received only US$ 0.2 billion from NRI’s last year! India inports nearly US$ 8 to 10 billion worth of Gold every year. This means that we have imported nearly US$ 96 to 120 billion worth of Gold, in the last 12 years, since liberalization of the economy. We should try to find ways to ‘funnel’ this retail investment into more economical areas, to benifit the
Nation and it’s people.
12. How has China managed to get large FDI inflows from the NRC’s?
Maybe, there is a lesson to be learnt by us, as to how China is able to woo its NRC’s! The largest banks in Hong Kong, HSBC and Standard Chartered, may be able to throw some light on how the NRC’s have been able to invest so much in to China and Hong Kong.
13. India’s POT of GOLD how can we get it back?
It is estimated that a large amount of Indian Money, is lying outside India, due to poor governance & administration of India and due to past regimes of controls and high taxation. The quality of our Governance & Administration is still not to World
Class standards. If India can put its House in Order, to near World Class Standards, a substantial part of this money could easily come back to drive the Indian economy. Estimates of funds lying outside range from US$ 100 billion to US$ 400 billion! India’s
total foreign debt is about US$100 billion. The Indian Government should plan for 30 year Infrastructure Bonds, with a coupon rate of 4 to 6%, both for domestic Citizens as well as for NRI’s, with tax breaks and incentives. No questions should be asked
about the source of funds. India requires US$ 180 to 200 billion for connecting the water ways and rivers, for Ports, Airports, Railways and roads. After the 2nd World war, when Germany was devasted, the German Government came out with a similar scheme to build the Nation. the interest rates are very low in the international markets and interest rates are also dropping in India. It may be a good
time to consider such proposals.
14. Only Good Governance and Effective Administration
can attract higher FDI into India and induce money to flow back.
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